The past has shown that nontraditional measures like brothels, beer and lipstick can tell us a lot about the economy’s health ...

Despite heightened volatility across financial markets in recent sessions, signals from prediction markets suggest recession fears are easing rather than intensifying. Kalshi data indicates the ...

The U.S. economy managed to navigate a volatile 2025 without collapsing, but the cumulative effects of ongoing trade tensions and persistent inflation keep concerns about a 2026 recession on ...

SaaS stocks plunged 15% as AI disruption fears grew, while Bitcoin and silver swung. Read more macro analysis here.

The economy has a way of keeping everyone on edge. One day we're hearing about job growth and consumer confidence, the next we're bracing for layoffs and market turbulence. It's hard to say for sure ...

Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same ...

Looming fears of a recession have subsided in recent months. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and GDP continuing to grow, Americans’ economic anxieties have cooled. But one economist ...

Slowing home price growth, rising inventory in some regions and modestly lower mortgage rates are giving buyers slightly more ...

The U.S. economy just delivered a blockbuster third quarter, but traders are already betting that the pace will start to cool sharply. Prediction markets reacted quickly after the ...

Prediction markets are interesting developments, but are they the long-term opportunity that investors are hoping for?

Prediction markets have a similar appeal to cryptocurrency trading with risk-seeking investors. In addition to obvious risks, prediction markets have several gray areas. Regulators could look more ...